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USD/CHF Trend Analysis
The USD/CHF is not trending now. The analysis indicates that this pair is consolidating and is going sideways on the H4 time frame in a narrow price range. To catch the next movement and breakout in either direction traders should set a straddle alert on this pair at 0.9200 and 0.9300 to catch movement in either direction. A straddle alert is two audible price alerts set above and below the consolidation zone.
After the price alert hist hits you can verify the trade entry in either direction with The Forex Heatmap® forex heatmap There is plenty of room to move in either direction as there is no nearby support or resistance past the straddle alarm prices. The forex trend indicators you see are 5/12 exponential moving averages that we provide to forex traders at no cost. Price alerts are also free and valuable for detecting price movement on any of the 28 pairs we follow.
Rules Based Forex Trading For Accurate Entries
This article will present a rules-based forex trading system and a short list of rules for more accurate trade entries. We will also present another list of rules for managing the trade after entry, using our published trade management procedures.
By incorporating these rules into your forex trading, trade entry accuracy and pip totals should increase substantially. We will start with some basic rules for a simple but effective forex trading system. Then you can increase the number of forex trading rules to limit the number of trades, or to enhance the results and overall pips captured on a trade-by-trade by trade basis.
Why Trade The Forex With Rules?
Setting up a rules-based forex trading system allows you to formulate a complete trading system based on those rules. It also gives you the ability to test any trading system or method. This is much different than random trade entries. Rules must be specific, not general. With rules you know when to buy or sell, this reduces stress and is a great tip for beginner forex traders to proceed into demo trading then live trading.
A rules-based trading system means you do not guess or use discretion from trade to trade. You simply follow the rules. The rules you set up should be simple. All traders should avoid complex rules, systems, and standard technical indicators that cannot be easily explained.
If you set up a rules-based forex trading system for entering trades and you rigidly follow these rules, the results should be positive trades, pips, and profits. If the results are consistent losses with few or no winners, then the rules you set up or the trading system you are following is a faulty system. Abandon the system and set up new rules based on a new set of rules that is specific to that system. Fortunately, you can discover a faulty system with demo trading, without any financial risk or actual monetary losses.
If you start to enter demo forex trades based on your trading rules and you simply cannot make any profitable trades, your system is likely faulty or ineffective. The culprit is more than likely the technical indicators behind the system, because technical indicators proliferate the forex industry and simply do not work.
Here Are Some Trading Rules To Get Started
Here is an example of a basic set of five entry rules for any trade for use with the Forexearlywarning trading system.
Rule 1 – Trade in the direction of the primary trend on the higher time frames, H4 and larger.
Rule 2 – Only enter trades with no nearby resistance on buys or no nearby support on sells, at least 100-125 pips, and at least 200 pips on some highly volatile pairs.
Rule 3 – Trade only if one currency is consistently strong or the other one is consistently weak, or both. See an example of consistent Euro (EUR) currency strength below using our real time trading tool called The Forex Heatmap®.
Rules Based Forex Trading Trade Entry
If the EUR/CAD or EUR/JPY is trending up on at least the H4 time frame, go ahead and buy the pair. You can see the movement was very strong, 125 pips in one trading session on just one pair. Not a bad start.
Rule 4 – Trade only in the main forex trading session for at least 6 months.
Rule 5 – Demo trade first, then move to micro lot trading with stop orders, then continue to scale up to mini lots over time. Build your experience base.
Using these five simple rules we lay out in here should result in significant positive pips for any forex trader, without relying on any technical indicators whatsoever. This way you can make sure your system is valid and effective before committing any real money and going to live trading. Use these rules for trading 28 different pairs with high liquidity. The momentum signals are provided by The Forex Heatmap®.
Rules For Trade Management
We will now present 3 basic rules for managing the trades. Any good rules-based forex trading system will also have rules for trade management and money management. Here they are:
Money Management Rule 1 – Always trade with a stop order.
Money Management Rule 2 – When your trade entry goes into positive pips, like +30-50 pips or more, scale out half of your lots and move the stop to break even. This is a basic rule of thumb for profit management.
Money Management Rule 3 – Do not enter a trade unless you can possibly get at least 3 pips for each pip you risk. This is a +3 to 1 money management ratio, minimum. For example, if you start your trade with a 30 pip stop you must be trying to get at least 100 pips from that trade potential reward. This is predetermined risk versus reward ratio, in this case +3.3 to 1 which is 100 divided by 30.
Trading Rules For Other Situations
Each paragraph below has some other considerations for setting up rules, depending on the situation.
Occasionally some trades occur outside the main trading session boundaries, here are some modifications of the rules for trading outside the main session. In the Asian session we would keep the original five rules in place for the main session then add one more rule. When trading in the Asian session you would also want to enter trades only at the beginning of a new movement cycle on the H1, H4, or D1 time frames. By adding one more rule we can now look to enter trades in the Asian session. Trade at the beginning of the trend cycle on the higher time frames when entering trades in the Asian session.
Many entries in the Asian session are around AUD, NZD, and JPY news drivers, so keep an eye on the forex news calendar for volatile news drivers for these three currencies. Now that you have a rules based forex trading system for trading in the main session, and also the Asian session, you have about 95% of potential trade entries covered.
Only trade a pair when it is starting a new movement after a consolidation or retracement period, or when a non-trending pair starts a new movement or trend (breakout). When you are trading with a trend based system, you would prefer to trade near the beginning of a new movement cycle, so you can sit back and ride the trend for a few days or longer and let the market do the work.
Also, news drivers can move markets and cause stop outs, or additional profits. So you need a set of rules for trading around volatile news drivers.
When entering a trade make sure strong news drivers are at least one hour away to give you time to move your stop to break even on any recently entered trades. Otherwise exit the trade or wait until after the news to consider a new trade entry. Make sure stops are at break-even ahead of any volatile news events on the forex news calendar. Example: If you enter a trade on the USD/JPY and there is a USD or JPY news driver in the next hour, make sure your stop is at breakeven or better before the news.
Understanding the condition of the market is important to forex traders and can be incorporated into a rules-based forex trading system. If many of the pairs and currency groups look choppy on the charts you can set up rules to deal with this problem, like specifying the number of lots traded to be less or staying out of the market altogether. Market conditions change from trending to ranging or choppy and if you can identify this, you can account for this with a new rule.
Drilling down the charts daily with multiple time frame analysis will always give you a clear view of the current market conditions, trending, ranging, oscillating, choppy, on any pair or group of pairs with one common currency.
If you identify a choppy group of pairs or choppy market in general, be prepared to trade less lots on each live trade or not to trade at all until it clears up, which may only take 1 or 2 days. Or else move to another pair. We have an article completely dedicated to trading in a choppy market that would be a great read for these market conditions.
If a forex trader has 6 months to one year of trading experience and is consistently making positive pips, it is possible to “loosen” some of the forex trading rules and look for more trading opportunities. Anyone who has successful traded the forex market this long has earned the right to look for more pips. Experienced traders can look to do short term intra-day trades, trade outside the boundaries of the main trading session, and possibly even do short term trades against the trend. You still need to have a basic set of rules for day trading similar to the ones we have discussed.
If a currency pairs trends in one direction for a long period of time, but cycles in the other direction it is okay to do a short-term trade against the major trend. Short term reversals can and do happen and can continue for a few days.
If the entire market is ranging and you would like to do some short-term trading trying to make 40-50 pips at a time this is not a problem. Just follow the five basic rules we set out in this article. Forex day trading rules are most definitely for experienced traders.
Reducing the time frame for entry below the H4 threshold, down to the H1 time frame, is possible for experienced traders if the other rules are met or there is a fresh movement cycle starting on the H1 time frame.
Experienced forex traders can develop more intricate rules for profit taking, setting price targets, and scaling out additional lots. Advanced forex traders should review our resources related to forex profit management then prepare additional rules based on the ideas presented in this article.
Conclusions About Rules Based Forex Trading – Any forex trader can take this article and use the five basic forex trading rules for trade entries and three basic rules for money management. If you apply the five basic rules your trades will begin to improve, then after 6 months experience you can start experimenting with more rules to incorporate. After gaining experience, you may occasionally loosen the rules depending on what situation the market presents to you and as you become better at identifying different chart situations or market conditions for 28 pairs.
Forex Trade Signals EUR Strength 1-29-2015
Today in forex trading the EUR strength cased movement on many pairs. The Euro (EUR) was strong on all pairs, there was also some AUD (Australian Dollar) and CHF (Swiss Franc) weakness on the market. The EUR/AUD moved up strong and is forming a D1 time frame trend. It still has more upside and we will be preparing a detailed forex trading plan to buy this pair. The EUR/CHF also moved up strong and this pair will likely continue higher as it has no nearby resistance. The live trade signals you see below for these EUR pairs are from The Forex Heatmap®.
Forex Trend Indicators AUD/USD 1-28-2015
The trend indicators shown below on the AUD/USD indicate the trend is down on the largest time frames. The time frame shown on this pair is the MN time frame. The current support on the AUD/USD is 0.7870, denoted by the yellow line, you can set a price alert here. When the alert hits you can check The Forex Heatmap® for a sell signal. This pair has plenty or room to drop below there, there is no nearby support levels past there. These trend indicators are exponential moving averages that can be set up on any Metatrader platform.
Forex Alert System CHF Weakness 1-26-2015
Today in forex trading The Forex Heatmap® alert system signaled CHF weakness. The CHF (Swiss Franc) weakness drove very strong price movement. All of the CHF pairs moved on this basis. There was some EUR strength in the market as well. The EUR/CHF moved up strong on the smaller time frames. The movement was good but all of the CHF pairs are still range bound, so we would exit this short term trade or scale out lots. The alert system you see pictured below showing the CHF weakness is The Forex Heatmap®, a real time visual map of the forex market. It gives visual trading alerts for 28 currency pairs.
Currency Pair Analysis GBP/CAD 1-21-2015
The GBP/CAD analysis below shows that this pair has broken through short term resistance and is now trending up again on the largest time frames. The current short term resistance level is at 1.8730. We would set a price alert here. When the alert hits we would look for more buy signals going forward above this price on The Forex Heatmap®. The upside potential on this trend is still very good. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) interest rate news today could signal more CAD weakness ahead, which would continue to drive this pair higher. The analysis of the GBP/CAD was performed with multiple time frame analysis.
Currency Strength Trading CAD Weakness 1-20-2015
Today in currency trading the CAD (Canadian Dollar) weakness was visible on all pairs. There was also some British Pound (GBP) strength in the market today. This drove the GBP/CAD strong to the upside. The movement was very good, but we would consider this a short term trade because it is inside of resistance layers on the higher time frames. So we would close out some lots or exit the trade completely. The trading signals for the CAD you see below are from The Forex Heatmap®, which provides live buy and sell signals for 28 currency pairs.
Forex Chart Analysis USD/CHF 1-14-2015
The USD/CHF chart analysis shows that this pair is trending higher is trending higher on the largest time frames, like the MN time frame shown below. The current resistance is at 1.0225. You can set a price alert here. When the alert hits check The Forex Heatmap® for a buy signal. We do not see any resistance past the alert price nearby plus considerable upside potential of over 600 pips. The chart analysis you see below was performed with multiple time frame analysis.
Forex News Trading, Tools And Indicators For Best Results
Forex news trading is possible for any trader as long as you have the correct tools and indicators. We will show traders how to locate the most important forex news, then give them the proper tools and an indicator set for a complete forex news trading strategy.
Locating The Most Important Forex News
The exact times of scheduled news releases can be obtained from any forex news calendar. Here is a snapshot of a popular news calendar. Traders can see the news items with their exact release time, and the times can be adjusted to GMT time clock or local time. Forex news calendars like the one below are part of your tool set for news trading for locating high impact forex trading news. High impact news items are in red on this particular news calendar. We also have a world economic news calendar on our website.
Indicators For Forex News Trading
A good set of trend indicators and a live signaling system are also part of a great forex news trading system. After the news there can be volatility in the market for the any of pairs with the news related currency, or possibly on other pairs too. Before doing any forex news trading, traders need to know the direction of the major trends of the market, and you also need to know if at least one currency is consistently strong or weak before entering any news related trades.
Knowing the direction of the major trends and having some simple forex trend indicators is a good place to start with your indicator set. Here is a set of free forex trend indicators that can be set up on most forex charting platforms. When you place a forex news trade you will know if you are trading in the direction of the major trends.
Another powerful tool for your news trading would be The Forex Heatmap®, which is a real time currency strength indicator for forex traders. This would be another great indicator to have ready for trading forex news. It works for 8 currencies.
Forex News Trading And Money Management
If you enter a trade after some important forex news, always place a stop order to minimize any risk of loss. When the trade proceeds in the direction of the indicators and the trend, then scale out lots and move your stop to break even. Scaling out lots means you take profits on half of your lots and let the remaining lots continue to profit, with a break even stop on the remaining lots. Capturing profits from forex news trading and moving stops will increase your account balance and reduce risk to zero.
Forex News Trading Example
Let’s look at one forex news trading example. The forex news calendar indicates an important Canadian Dollar (CAD) news driver at 1230 GMT in the main trading session. The news happens and the CAD is consistently weak on all 7 pairs in the group in one direction using The Forex Heatmap®.
The heatmap specifies that the GBP/CAD has the best signal. You check your trend indicators and you see that the GBP/CAD is in an uptrend on the higher time frames, with no nearby resistance. In this case you have a very good situation for buying the GBP/CAD, or selling the CAD/JPY. With signals this strong a trader can enter a trade in the direction of the trend, and in many cases enter a short term term trade on the smaller time frames in the direction of the CAD weakness. Signals this strong and consistent generate great movement.
Conclusions About Forex News Trading – Trading after forex news drivers is possible with the right set of tools, indicators, and forex money management techniques. The techniques and tools presented here work well for the 8 currency groups and 28 pairs we track daily as part of our trading system.
Forex Trading Charts GBP/JPY 1-7-2015
The GBP/JPY charts show that this pair is is still trending up on the larger time frames, but it has sold off on the H4 time frame. We expect this pair to reverse to the upside. It has the potential to cycle back up to the 187.00 resistance area again. You can set a price alert at the 180.75 level on this pair. When the alert hits look for a buy signal on The Forex Heatmap®. This is the H4 time frame chart shown below, these charts are exponential moving averages set up on a meta trader platform.